The Big Picture - Champions Cup Returns

The Champions Cup makes a welcome return with the penultimate round of pool matches set for this weekend. All four Irish provinces will be looking for big performances to keep their hopes of qualification for the knock-out stages alive.

It’s a sign of the times that all four Irish provinces still in with a chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals of the tournament as we head into the final two rounds of pool matches over the next two weekends, with. Should any, some or all of them make it, it will be another positive step forward for Irish rugby in a season that has already seen quite a few positives. Lest we forget - there were no Irish sides in the last-eight last season and only one (Leinster) the year before.

Munster and Leinster are well-positioned to make it to the knock-out stages and one win from their remaining two games should see both sides through. However, Ulster and Connacht faces slightly tougher challenges, but both are well in the hunt. Having said that, the real prize is a home quarter-final which requires a top four seeding – that means finishing at least fourth best of the five pool winners.

Strangely enough, that’s where the benefit from winning your pool and winning it well ends. Even if you are a first or second seed by virtue of your pool performances and win your quarter final, that doesn’t necessarily guarantee you a home semi-final – it all depends on how the other quarter finals go. Perhaps the powers that be who introduced it last year thought that this was a more equitable way to run the competition as it might permit one of the supposedly darker horses to come good late on – who knows? Is it a good thing? Perhaps, if you expected the French and English sides to continue to dominate the way they have over the last few years, but that hasn’t been the case this year so we may get a rethink ahead of next season.

Munster

Munster are in pole position in Pool 1 following their 32-7 demolition of Racing 92 in Paris last weekend. That’s three wins and four bonus points from four games as Rassie Erasmus’s side continued their superb run of form in overwhelming the incumbent Top 14 champions, easily picking up what could prove a crucial a bonus point in the process. There is no reason to expect anything less than another five points when the sides meet at Thomond Park next weekend as Racing are out of the reckoning after a disastrous European campaign where they have so far failed to register a single point. One thing is certain, Racing coach Ronan O’Gara won’t be relishing the thought of a return to his old stomping ground if his team are going to put on another performance like the one they produced last Saturday. It will be a cricket score if they do and he knows it!

But the real day of reckoning for Pool 1 comes this Saturday as Munster travel to Glasgow and Leicester Tigers head to Paris. Munster are currently three points ahead of Gregor Townsend’s side on 16, so avoiding a heavy defeat will be their primary goal. If they can do that and stop Glasgow picking up a winning bonus point, their progress should be guaranteed on the final day. Even a losing bonus point would be a decent return from the game as Glasgow still have to travel to Leicester next weekend. The Premiership outfit are five points behind Glasgow at present and, with two bonus point wins, could yet sneak into the knock-out stages as one of the best runners-up. It’s a long shot for a side that has blown very hot and cold in this campaign. Anything less than five points in Paris this weekend and their European adventures are probably over for this year.

For Munster’s part, a visit to Scotstoun is always daunting, but they have already won there in the PRO12 this season and will be confident that they can do it again. Glasgow were very poor that night in early December as a late Ian Keatley drop goal sealed a 16-15 victory and are likely to be an entirely different proposition this time out. However, Munster are firing on all cylinders right now and are playing as well as they have for many years. It’ll be a very tough ask, but they have more than enough to win it and seal a quarter-final place with a game to spare. It is no more than they deserve.

Connacht

Injury-ravaged Connacht are level on points with Wasps and Toulouse in Pool 2 as they prepare to welcome Zebre to the Sportsground on Saturday and, judging by the Italian side’s performance against Leinster in the RDS last weekend, anything less than five points for Pat Lam’s men would be a huge surprise. That would put them in an ideal position heading into the final weekend as Wasps welcome three-time winners Toulouse to the Ricoh Arena, butyou can’t help but feel that Connacht’s fate will be decided next weekend at the Stade Ernest Wallon where they will need to produce something very special to progress.

Wasps are probably the favourites to top the pool as they face Toulouse at home and then Zebre away on the last day. They are an outstanding unit and have been running in tries for fun in the Premiership, with former Leinster man Jimmy Gopperth enjoying a new lease of life in the centre following the arrival of Danny Cipriani at the beginning of the season. They are currently three points ahead of reigning champions Saracens at the top of the table. The only potential cause for alarm is that they do concede points – they almost let Leicester Tigers back into the game at the weekend after running in three early tries and have conceded more than anyone else in the top six (277 in 13 games) so far this season.

However, they should be able to pick up nine or ten points from their two remaining Champions Cup games unless Toulouse go against form on Saturday and produce a decent away performance. It is a more likely scenario that the Top 14 side will be looking for a big win over Connacht next weekend to seal their progress as a best runner-up. For their part, Connacht know that their destiny lies in their own hands and that is all they could have asked at this stage of the competition. It promises to be a very exciting last two weeks.

Ulster

Ulster will need to be at their best against Exeter Chiefs at Sandy Park on Sunday to have any chance of qualifying for the quarter-finals. Anything less than a win will probably end their involvement for this year and they will look back on a poor performance at Bordeaux Begles as one of the main reasons for their present predicament. Their failure to secure a bonus point in their opening fixture against Exeter at Kingspan Park didn’t help matters either. They currently sit in third place just behind Bordeaux with just nine points to show from their four games to date.

Clermont Auvergne, meanwhile, are almost certain to win the group as they travel to Bordeaux and then host Exeter on the last day. They are well clear on 17 points, with the Premiership side out of the reckoning at the bottom of the table on six. Clermont, who are yet to win the competition, despite coming close on many occasions, look well set to seal a top four seeding at this stage.

Neil Doak’s Ulster side have been something of an enigma this season – at times enthralling and incisive, at others toothless and ineffectual. Their scrum has been a weak point throughout which has significantly diminished the attacking threat posed by their back line. They are well off the pace in the PRO12 and will be looking to make some amends with a win against Exeter to give themselves something to play for when they welcome Bordeaux to the Kingspan next weekend.

Leinster

Leo Cullen’s side are in a very strong position heading into their game against Montpellier at the RDS on Friday night. They are currently top of Pool 5 on 16 points, five clear of Montpellier and seven ahead of the other Top 14 side in the pool, Castres. Aviva Premiership outfit Northampton, who have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons throughout a disastrous campaign, are out of contention on four.

Victory at the RDS on Friday night will be enough to seal Leinster’s passage through to the quarter-finals. A winning bonus point would be even better, but they will be taking nothing for granted ahead of what promises to be a bruising encounter against a very big and physical Montpellier side who are likely to include former Ireland and Munster scrum-half Tomas O’Leary and returning international centre Benjamin Fall in their line-up. Star wingers Nemani Nadolo, who scored two tries in the reverse fixture back in October, and Timoci Nagusa are also expected to feature. However, head coach Jake White, who won the World Cup with South Africa in 2007, will have to manage without the services of lock Robins Tchalé-Watchou, Springbok front-row duo Jacques and Bismarck du Plessis and French international centre Alexandre Dumoulin in what is basically a must-win encounter for them if they hope to make it to the knock-out stages.

Leinster received a major boost with the return of Jonathan Sexton from injury in the 70-6 thrashing of Zebre last weekend. The international out-half looked in good form in his 55-minute outing against the Italian side, his first rugby since being injured early on in the 21-9 defeat to the All Blacks at the Aviva on November 20th. Although Ross Byrne has deputised more than ably in his and Joey Carbery’s subsequent absence, Sexton is a world class performer and Leinster will benefit hugely from his consummate game management skills as we head into the business end of the season.

Rob Kearney is also back in contention which could see Isa Nacewa move to one of the wings in place of either Rory O’Loughlin or Adam Byrne. If that is the case, whoever misses out can count themselves extremely unlucky as both Leinster Academy graduates have been in superb form this season and have grabbed their opportunities with both hands. O’Loughlin has scored five tries in his last two games for the senior side, including a hat-trick against Zebre last weekend and a superb solo effort from half-way against Ulster on New Year’s Eve. Byrne has notched nine tries in 12 appearances this season, including a hat-trick at Zebre in November and two in the 60-13 rout of Northampton at the Aviva last month.

Leinster travel to Castres next weekend in their final game and they will be hoping that the Top 14 side’s interest in the tournament will have ended by then in the wake of their trip to Franklin’s Gardens on Saturday. They realistically need a minimum of six points to guarantee a home quarter-final given the current state of the other pools. They will be looking for five against Montpellier on Friday which, although easier said than done, would make things a lot simpler for next weekend. Either way, we are set for two great games of rugby.

Pictures: Getty Images/INPHO

There is plenty of great Champions Cup rugby coming up on the eir Sport pack over the next two weekends.