The Big Picture: Destiny Calls For Champions Cup Hopefuls

Munster and Leinster will be hoping to seal home quarter-finals with victories. Ulster’s star has faded, but Connacht’s fate is still in their own hands. All will be revealed in the final round of pool matches this weekend.

Things are a lot clearer now after the penultimate round of the Champions Cup pool stages last weekend. Superb performances from Munster and Leinster have seen both provinces ease into the knock-out phase with a game to spare. Ulster are out barring a miracle following a brave but ultimately uneven performance against Exeter Chiefs, while Connacht face a tough task away to three-time champions Toulouse if they are to prolong their involvement in the tournament. It’s a massive challenge for Pat Lam’s side, but at least they know what they have to do. Stranger things have happened!

It was a good weekend for the Irish provinces by and large, with three wins and one defeat and bonus points for both Leinster and Connacht. The Westerners continue to amaze. Despite a massive injury list, the reigning PRO12 champions have done everything that was asked of them so far in this tournament, with the possible exception of letting a losing bonus point get away from them at Wasps in October. Otherwise, they have been superb and are deservedly in the mix for a quarter-final place.

Leinster were majestic as they destroyed Montpellier, running in eight tries in the process against a side that is currently third in the Top 14, while Munster rolled back the years with yet another superb display of grit and determination to secure a deserved win in Glasgow. Both sides, especially Munster, are now in with a great chance of securing home quarter-finals.

Leinster travel to Castres on Friday night, with the French club’s hopes hanging by a thread following their 28-21 defeat against Northampton at Franklin’s Gardens last weekend. Meanwhile, Munster host Racing 92 who finally showed their teeth with a 32-3 thrashing of Leicester Tigers who will be keen to forget their European travels this season following another poor showing on the road. Perhaps Racing are emerging from their slumber at last, but anything other than a Munster victory on Saturday at Thomond Park would be a major surprise.

Qualifiers

In addition to Munster and Leinster, the other sides to have definitely qualified for the last-eight at this stage are Clermont Auvergne and holders Saracens. The Premiership side, who beat Racing in last year’s final, scored an injury time try to snatch a late draw with Scarlets on Sunday which guarantees their progress, almost certainly as pool winners. Even if they suffer an unlikely bonus point hammering at home to Toulon on Saturday, they will still go through as one of the best runners-up. They have the look of a side who will be around at the business end of the tournament and the other teams will be hoping to avoid them in the next round and the semi-final.

As regards Toulon, they will need to get something from the game at Allianz Park or they could be out. A losing bonus point may not be enough to save them though and they may need more. Granted, it was a tough draw that saw them having to face the holders in the pool stages, but they have looked a shadow of their former selves throughout and the veneer of invincibility that they carried for so long appears to have faded somewhat this season. It took them a long time to assert themselves at the Felix Mayol last weekend against Sale Sharks who are definitely no great shakes and have yet to register a point in this tournament after five games. However, being able to dig out the two tries they needed for a bonus point in the final couple of minutes may just give them a renewed sense of belief and kick-start their season. Who knows, they may yet prove to be the dark horses of this tournament.

Meanwhile, it’s been business as usual for Clermont in Europe once again as they have dominated Pool 5 from the start. They are ten points clear of second-placed Exeter who face the daunting prospect of a visit to the fortress that is the Stade Marcel-Michelin on Saturday. Their only blip to date was the 39-32 reverse at the Kingspan Stadium in round two and they still managed to take two points from that. Could this be their year at last? They have been so close so often, no-one would begrudge them the title if they were to win it this year.

Last weekend

Round five of the pool stages saw remarkable performances from two of the Irish provinces – Leinster and Munster. They were very different in character, but both put down a significant marker as to how far these sides can go in the competition this year.

Leinster barely put a foot wrong all evening at the RDS on Friday as they dismantled Montpellier 57-3. There had been plenty of talk about how big the French side were and how physical the contest would be, but Leinster had a game plan and executed it to perfection. Although it could be argued that the contest turned on the 26^th minute dismissal of Francois Steyn for a reckless challenge on Jonathan Sexton, Leinster had already run in two tries by then and were expertly moving their bulkier opponents around the pitch by constantly changing the point of attack. They registered eight tries in all, three of them to man-of-the-match Jack Conan, in one of the best displays seen at the RDS since the glory days of Eddie Macken and Boomerang.

Munster were equally superb as they dug deep to grind out a crucial 16-14 victory over Glasgow Warriors at Scotstoun. In a very tight game, Francis Saili’s superbly worked try nine minutes from time proved the difference between the sides. It was a disastrous result for the home side who must now get something from their game against Leicester Tigers at Welford Road on Saturday if they are to progress to the last eight.

Connacht survived a shaky start before running in ten tries in a 66-21 romp against Italian minnows Zebre at The Sportsground. The result leaves Pat Lam’s side on top of Pool 2 with 18 points, one ahead of Wasps and four clear of this weekend’s opponents, Toulouse.The Westerners were expected to win big and they duly delivered, but it may not be enough and their fate will be decided this weekend in the south of France when they take on Toulouse in their final game. In the other match in the pool, Wasps needed a late Dan Robson try to snatch victory over the three-times winners.

Ulster faded badly once again after a bright start as they went down 32-19 to Exeter Chiefs at Sandy Park. They failed to press home their advantage from Sean Reidy’s second minute try and, despite two cameo five-pointers from the mercurial Charles Piutau, the outcome had an air of inevitability about it as the home side slowly took control and eventually squeezed the life out of their opponents with four tries of their own to secure a deserved bonus point. It was one poor performance too many for Neil Doak’s side and it’s hard to see them coming back from this one.

Lots to play for

The final list of quarter-finalists may be beginning to take shape, but there’s still plenty to play for all four Irish provinces. Obviously Munster and Leinster will be looking to secure homes ties for the quarter-finals. A victory for Munster would guarantee that while, should results go against them, Leinster will require at least one or possibly two points. They have won at the Stade Pierre-Antoine before, but it may prove more difficult this time around as Castres will be looking for five points themselves in the hope of sneaking into a best runner-up position. However, Leinster have more than enough experience and guile to get what they need from the game.

Connacht know exactly what they have to do to make it into the last eight. Basically, they have four options - win (a victory with a bonus point would secure top spot in the pool), draw, deny Toulouse a try bonus while claiming a losing bonus point for themselves, or secure both a losing bonus point and a try bonus. If the teams were to finish level on points in the pool, it would mean Toulouse have won more match points from their head-to-head encounters (Connacht claimed four points while Toulouse got a losing bonus in Galway), so they would go through on that basis.

Wasps’ late winning try last weekend leaves the Premiership side in the driving seat in Pool 2 heading into the final weekend. They travel to Zebre where they should pick up five points and guarantee their qualification for the knock-out stages, but whether that will be as group winners or not depends on how Connacht fare at the Stade Ernest Wallon.

Ulster’s hopes are hanging by a thread in Pool 5. They need to secure a bonus point victory over Bordeaux Begles at the Kingspan Stadium this weekend and hope that all other results go their way. Five points would take their tally to 14 – it’s unlikely to be enough but they won’t give up hope until it’s mathematically impossible for them to qualify.

Barring something extraordinary, there will be two Irish sides left in the competition come Sunday evening – Leinster and Munster – with both securing home advantage for the quarter-final. Connacht have had a great tournament but, like Ulster, a place in the knock-out phase may just be beyond them for this season. But sport is full of surprises – that’s why we love it so much!

Pictures: Getty/INPHO